2026 Forecast: What to Expect in Short-Term Rentals

The short-term rental (STR) market in 2026 is shaping up to be a “work the fundamentals” year. Demand is still strong overall, but supply continues to expand in many markets, and guests are more value-conscious than they were during peak post-pandemic travel. The properties that win in 2026 will be the ones that price intelligently, deliver consistently great stays, and convert browsers into bookings through strong presentation and trust signals.

Below is the macro outlook, what we’re watching in our core regions, and the playbook we’re using to stay ahead.

Executive Snapshot: 2026 in One Page

What’s likely true in 2026 (nationally):

• Occupancy may soften slightly, primarily because new supply is still entering the market.
• Rates (ADR) should rise modestly in most segments, meaning revenue growth will depend more on pricing power and conversion than “easy demand.”
• Guests will continue to prioritize value, clarity, and confidence—strong photos, accurate listings, fast response times, and consistent cleanliness will matter more than trendy add-ons.
• Regulation remains a real variable—especially at the city/town level—with more permitting, caps, enforcement, and tax attention across the U.S. 

Macro Travel Trends Influencing STRs in 2026

1) Travel demand remains resilient, but budgets are tighter

Consumers are still prioritizing travel, but are more sensitive to total trip cost—meaning properties that clearly communicate value and reduce friction will convert better.

2) Events + “reason to travel” will matter more

Major events create spikes—sometimes hyper-local. For 2026, the biggest headline is the FIFA World Cup (North America), which is already influencing travel patterns and booking behavior.

3) Experience-led travel continues (not just “a place to stay”)

Expedia/Vrbo’s Unpack ’26 points to travelers booking around experiences and cultural moments—sports travel, “salvaged stays,” farm/nature-driven trips, and other themed travel behavior.

U.S. Short-Term Rental Market Outlook: Supply, Demand, Occupancy, Rates

Supply is still expanding—and that’s the core story

Nationally, many markets are still seeing new listings (and new “professionalized” operators). That added inventory is the main reason occupancy is projected to stay competitive in 2026, even if demand remains healthy. AirDNA’s 2026 Outlook expects occupancy pressure in many large markets, and frames 2026 as a year where RevPAR results hinge more on pricing power than occupancy growth.

Occupancy: stable baseline, slight headwind

AirDNA’s year-end review showed U.S. occupancy around the high-50s in 2025 and describes early 2026 pacing as constructive—but with market-by-market variation. For 2026 specifically, AirDNA’s outlook commentary points to a modest dip in occupancy (roughly ~1% in their public-facing discussion) paired with modest ADR growth.

Rates: modest growth, more segmentation

Most indicators point to modest ADR increases in 2026 (not the wild spikes of 2021–2022). The practical implication: we expect more “rate ceilings” in oversupplied markets and more pricing power in markets with constrained supply (or strong seasonal/event demand).

Regional Outlook: What This Means in Our Core Markets

Because LiveSuites operates across multiple states and property types (urban, resort/leisure, lake markets, boutique stays), the best way to think about 2026 is by demand driver:

Michigan: strong summer demand, growing regulation pressure in certain towns

Michigan remains a classic seasonal demand story—summer peaks can be extremely strong, and shoulder seasons are where great operators separate themselves. AirDNA continues to highlight Michigan’s top markets as competitive, with performance that’s highly seasonal. 

At the local level, parts of Northern Michigan are seeing more active STR policy shaping—caps, permits, and enforcement are increasingly common depending on the municipality.

2026 Michigan takeaways

• Summer pricing power is real—plan early, protect weekends, and sell “experience bundles” (lake days, wineries, festivals).
• Shoulder season strategy matters more than ever: flexible minimum stays, midweek value, and direct-booking incentives.

Indiana: steady opportunity in mixed demand markets

Indiana tends to be a “pockets of demand” state: metro-adjacent travel, event weekends, and leisure pockets. AirDNA’s Indiana market list reinforces the variety—from college towns to lake and weekend-drive markets.

2026 Indiana takeaways

• Win with clarity and convenience: easy check-in, strong WiFi, parking notes, and clean “why book this” positioning.
• Expect more rate competition in oversupplied areas—conversion and reviews become the advantage.

Ohio: drive-to leisure + experience markets remain strong

Ohio benefits from drive-to behavior and distinct leisure regions (cabins/outdoors) plus major metros. AirDNA’s Ohio market breakdown highlights a blend of nature and city demand.

2026 Ohio takeaways

• Experience markets (outdoors, cabins, unique stays) keep outperforming when quality is high.
• Use seasonality tactically: promotions and content for spring/fall weekends can smooth demand.

Texas (especially Hill Country): year-round demand with “weekend spike” patterns

Texas is diverse: metro STRs behave differently than Hill Country leisure markets. AirDNA’s Texas market rankings reflect this mix, with multiple demand drivers across the state.

2026 Texas takeaways

• Hill Country continues to reward strong brand + aesthetic + group readiness (bachelorettes, weddings, family weekends).
• Expect strong event-driven demand and weekend spikes; build pricing and minimum-stay logic around that reality.

Regulations & Taxes: What Owners Should Expect in 2026

We’re seeing continued momentum toward:

• permitting / registration requirements
• caps or density limits in certain communities
• stricter enforcement tied to complaints and “good neighbor” rules
• lodging tax scrutiny and platform tax rules

This isn’t uniform by state—it’s usually local (city/town/county) and can change quickly.

What we’re doing about it: we monitor local changes and keep compliance (licensing, safety standards, tax workflows) integrated into onboarding and ongoing ops.

2026 Guest Behavior: What Drives Bookings This Year

Borrowing from Expedia/Vrbo trend work and what we see in day-to-day operations, 2026 bookings are increasingly driven by:

• Trust & confidence (accurate photos, clear rules, consistent reviews)
• Experience alignment (sports/event travel, group trips, “meaningful” weekends)
• Value clarity (guests compare total cost + cancellation policies + reviews more than ever)

2026 Playbook: How to Win in a Competitive Year

Here’s what we’re prioritizing across the portfolio:

1) Pricing that matches booking behavior (not just “market averages”)

• Protect high-demand weekends and event dates
• Build shoulder-season strategies (midweek, 3-night promos, targeted discounts)
• Adjust based on pickup and booking window behavior, not gut feel

2) Listing conversion is the battleground

In a supply-heavy environment, the property that looks best and feels most trustworthy wins:

• photo order and captions
• titles that sell the experience
• clear amenity callouts (WiFi, parking, family/group readiness)
• proactive review management and responses

3) Direct booking: not optional anymore

Direct booking is how we reduce reliance on OTAs and protect long-term profitability—especially for high-quality properties with repeatability (families, groups, annual trips).

4) Targeted marketing where it matters

We’ll keep pushing:

• regional campaigns (drive-to markets)
• seasonal destination content
• email and retargeting to bring past guests back
• “reason to book now” messaging around events and peak windows

Bottom Line for Owners

2026 isn’t a downturn year—it’s a professional operator year.

When supply rises, results hinge on the fundamentals:

• competitive, data-driven pricing
• excellent guest experience and review velocity
• strong listing presentation and fast response
• marketing that creates demand (not just waits for it)

That’s exactly where LiveSuites is strongest—and why we’re confident heading into 2026.